generated from mathias/template-go-web
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@@ -16,3 +16,7 @@
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| 3 | -0.0716 | +0.0487 | KEEP | 4s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=36°C | iter3 |
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| 3 | -0.0716 | +0.0487 | KEEP | 4s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=36°C | iter3 |
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| 4 | 0.0590 | +0.1306 | KEEP | 5s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=36°C | iter4 |
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| 4 | 0.0590 | +0.1306 | KEEP | 5s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=36°C | iter4 |
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| 5 | 0.0599 | +0.0009 | KEEP | 5s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=37°C | iter5 |
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| 5 | 0.0599 | +0.0009 | KEEP | 5s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=37°C | iter5 |
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| 1 | 0.0563 | -0.0036 | revert | 5s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=35°C | iter1 |
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| 2 | 0.0577 | -0.0022 | revert | 5s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=36°C | iter2 |
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| 3 | 0.0563 | -0.0036 | revert | 5s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=36°C | iter3 |
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| 4 | -0.1613 | -0.2212 | revert | 5s | gpu=0% vram=10054/12227MiB temp=37°C | iter4 |
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+8
-8
@@ -1,14 +1,14 @@
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{
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{
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"val_vol_r2": 0.05988483092470609,
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"val_vol_r2": 0.3641397896593044,
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"n_test": 263,
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"phase1_r2": 0.3908407688140869,
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"n_test": 11641,
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"knobs": {
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"knobs": {
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"WINDOW": 60,
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"WINDOW": 120,
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"PATCH_LEN": 5,
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"PATCH_LEN": 24,
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"STRIDE": 5,
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"D_MODEL": 128,
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"D_MODEL": 64,
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"DEPTH": 2,
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"DEPTH": 2,
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"MASK_FRAC": 0.5,
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"ALPHA": 0.1,
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"SIGREG_LAM": 0.01,
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"DELTA_T_MAX": 3,
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"EPOCHS": 300
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"EPOCHS": 300
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}
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}
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}
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}
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@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 64, "JEPA_DEPTH": 2, "JEPA_WINDOW": 120}, "val_vol_r2": 0.302411480667525, "phase1_r2": 0.35809940099716187, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3024 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:37:37.028406"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 64, "JEPA_DEPTH": 2, "JEPA_WINDOW": 240}, "val_vol_r2": 0.29654798431244755, "phase1_r2": 0.35618388652801514, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.2965 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:37:49.822762"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 64, "JEPA_DEPTH": 2, "JEPA_WINDOW": 480}, "val_vol_r2": 0.31050360040290237, "phase1_r2": 0.36530405282974243, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3105 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:38:02.966176"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 64, "JEPA_DEPTH": 4, "JEPA_WINDOW": 120}, "val_vol_r2": 0.2925057399716364, "phase1_r2": 0.3467639684677124, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.2925 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:38:16.195552"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 64, "JEPA_DEPTH": 4, "JEPA_WINDOW": 240}, "val_vol_r2": 0.29334667623516786, "phase1_r2": 0.35872191190719604, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.2933 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:38:31.372602"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 64, "JEPA_DEPTH": 4, "JEPA_WINDOW": 480}, "val_vol_r2": 0.3123527205416422, "phase1_r2": 0.3572431206703186, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3124 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:38:46.672203"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 128, "JEPA_DEPTH": 2, "JEPA_WINDOW": 120}, "val_vol_r2": 0.3641397896593044, "phase1_r2": 0.3908407688140869, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3641 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:39:00.793878"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 128, "JEPA_DEPTH": 2, "JEPA_WINDOW": 240}, "val_vol_r2": 0.35845865364171503, "phase1_r2": 0.3737195134162903, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3585 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:39:13.321428"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 128, "JEPA_DEPTH": 2, "JEPA_WINDOW": 480}, "val_vol_r2": 0.35310115657814645, "phase1_r2": 0.35306859016418457, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3531 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:39:26.402249"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 128, "JEPA_DEPTH": 4, "JEPA_WINDOW": 120}, "val_vol_r2": 0.3655629727960601, "phase1_r2": 0.371029257774353, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3656 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:39:39.786248"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 128, "JEPA_DEPTH": 4, "JEPA_WINDOW": 240}, "val_vol_r2": 0.36109622605593217, "phase1_r2": 0.3666273355484009, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3611 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:39:53.194111"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 128, "JEPA_DEPTH": 4, "JEPA_WINDOW": 480}, "val_vol_r2": 0.362228341965093, "phase1_r2": 0.3590735197067261, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3622 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:40:06.991680"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 256, "JEPA_DEPTH": 2, "JEPA_WINDOW": 120}, "val_vol_r2": 0.3749483295047378, "phase1_r2": 0.3801569938659668, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3749 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:40:21.512210"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 256, "JEPA_DEPTH": 2, "JEPA_WINDOW": 240}, "val_vol_r2": 0.3765593861479334, "phase1_r2": 0.38416117429733276, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3766 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:40:34.959919"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 256, "JEPA_DEPTH": 2, "JEPA_WINDOW": 480}, "val_vol_r2": 0.3653399117639956, "phase1_r2": 0.3685130476951599, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3653 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:40:48.806135"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 256, "JEPA_DEPTH": 4, "JEPA_WINDOW": 120}, "val_vol_r2": 0.375961424966925, "phase1_r2": 0.37861257791519165, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3760 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:41:04.056939"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 256, "JEPA_DEPTH": 4, "JEPA_WINDOW": 240}, "val_vol_r2": 0.37841726893098504, "phase1_r2": 0.3781360387802124, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3784 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:41:18.693263"}
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{"config": {"JEPA_D_MODEL": 256, "JEPA_DEPTH": 4, "JEPA_WINDOW": 480}, "val_vol_r2": 0.37118530199441635, "phase1_r2": 0.3651617765426636, "stdout_last": "val_vol_r2 = 0.3712 (n_test=11641, dev=cuda)", "ts": "2026-06-26T10:41:34.796157"}
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@@ -29,27 +29,45 @@ def resample_to_hourly(m1: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Aggregate M1 DataFrame to hourly bars.
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"""Aggregate M1 DataFrame to hourly bars.
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Args:
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Args:
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m1: DataFrame with columns ['ts' (datetime), 'close' (float)]
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m1: DataFrame with columns ['ts', 'open', 'high', 'low', 'close']
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('open'/'high'/'low' optional — omit for close-only data).
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Returns:
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Returns:
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DataFrame with columns ['datetime', 'close', 'ret', 'realized_vol']
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DataFrame with columns ['datetime', 'close', 'ret', 'realized_vol',
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sorted by datetime; hours with fewer than MIN_BARS M1 ticks dropped.
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'hl_range', 'ret_intrabar'] sorted by datetime.
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Hours with fewer than MIN_BARS M1 ticks are dropped.
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"""
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"""
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m1 = m1.sort_values("ts").copy()
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m1 = m1.sort_values("ts").copy()
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m1["log_r"] = np.log(m1["close"]).diff()
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m1["log_r"] = np.log(m1["close"]).diff()
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m1["hour"] = m1["ts"].dt.floor("h")
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m1["hour"] = m1["ts"].dt.floor("h")
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agg = m1.groupby("hour").agg(
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has_ohlc = all(c in m1.columns for c in ("open", "high", "low"))
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agg_dict = dict(
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close = ("close", "last"),
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close = ("close", "last"),
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realized_vol = ("log_r", lambda x: np.sqrt(np.nansum(x.values ** 2))),
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realized_vol = ("log_r", lambda x: np.sqrt(np.nansum(x.values ** 2))),
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n_bars = ("log_r", "count"),
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n_bars = ("log_r", "count"),
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).reset_index()
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)
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if has_ohlc:
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agg_dict["high"] = ("high", "max")
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agg_dict["low"] = ("low", "min")
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agg_dict["open_"] = ("open", "first")
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agg = m1.groupby("hour").agg(**agg_dict).reset_index()
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agg = agg[agg["n_bars"] >= MIN_BARS].copy()
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agg = agg[agg["n_bars"] >= MIN_BARS].copy()
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agg["ret"] = np.log(agg["close"]).diff()
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agg["ret"] = np.log(agg["close"]).diff()
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agg = agg.dropna(subset=["ret"]).reset_index(drop=True)
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agg = agg.dropna(subset=["ret"]).reset_index(drop=True)
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agg = agg.rename(columns={"hour": "datetime"})
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agg = agg.rename(columns={"hour": "datetime"})
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return agg[["datetime", "close", "ret", "realized_vol"]]
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if has_ohlc:
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agg["hl_range"] = np.log(agg["high"] / agg["low"])
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agg["ret_intrabar"]= np.log(agg["close"] / agg["open_"])
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cols = ["datetime", "close", "ret", "realized_vol", "hl_range", "ret_intrabar"]
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else:
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cols = ["datetime", "close", "ret", "realized_vol"]
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return agg[cols]
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def load_m1_from_zips(raw_dir: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
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def load_m1_from_zips(raw_dir: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
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@@ -68,7 +86,7 @@ def load_m1_from_zips(raw_dir: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
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names=["dt", "open", "high", "low", "close", "vol"],
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names=["dt", "open", "high", "low", "close", "vol"],
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)
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)
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df["ts"] = pd.to_datetime(df["dt"], format="%Y%m%d %H%M%S")
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df["ts"] = pd.to_datetime(df["dt"], format="%Y%m%d %H%M%S")
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frames.append(df[["ts", "close"]])
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frames.append(df[["ts", "open", "high", "low", "close"]])
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print(f" loaded {os.path.basename(zp)}: {len(df):,} rows")
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print(f" loaded {os.path.basename(zp)}: {len(df):,} rows")
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return pd.concat(frames).sort_values("ts").reset_index(drop=True)
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return pd.concat(frames).sort_values("ts").reset_index(drop=True)
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@@ -227,3 +227,51 @@ def test_hpo_sweep_configs():
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required = {"JEPA_D_MODEL", "JEPA_DEPTH", "JEPA_WINDOW"}
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required = {"JEPA_D_MODEL", "JEPA_DEPTH", "JEPA_WINDOW"}
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for cfg in cfgs:
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for cfg in cfgs:
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assert required.issubset(cfg.keys()), f"config missing required keys: {cfg}"
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assert required.issubset(cfg.keys()), f"config missing required keys: {cfg}"
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# ── Option B: joint encoder fine-tuning in phase-1 ───────────────────────────
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# 15. PHASE1_JOINT and PHASE1_ENCODER_LR knobs exist at module level
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def test_joint_phase1_knobs():
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mod = _import({"JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT": "1", "JEPA_PHASE1_ENCODER_LR": "1e-5"})
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assert hasattr(mod, "PHASE1_JOINT"), "PHASE1_JOINT knob missing from train.py"
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assert hasattr(mod, "PHASE1_ENCODER_LR"), "PHASE1_ENCODER_LR knob missing from train.py"
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assert mod.PHASE1_JOINT is True
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assert abs(mod.PHASE1_ENCODER_LR - 1e-5) < 1e-12
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# 16. PHASE1_JOINT defaults to True (joint mode on by default)
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def test_joint_phase1_default_on():
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mod = _import()
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assert hasattr(mod, "PHASE1_JOINT"), "PHASE1_JOINT knob missing"
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assert mod.PHASE1_JOINT is True, f"PHASE1_JOINT default should be True, got {mod.PHASE1_JOINT}"
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# 17. JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT=0 disables joint (env override works)
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def test_joint_phase1_can_disable():
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mod = _import({"JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT": "0"})
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assert mod.PHASE1_JOINT is False, f"expected False, got {mod.PHASE1_JOINT}"
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# 18. Encoder receives non-zero gradients when joint-training with the head
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def test_joint_encoder_grad_flows(train_mod):
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"""Gradient must flow into encoder when using two-param-group joint optimizer."""
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import torch.nn.functional as F
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enc = train_mod.CausalEncoder(n_channels=2, patch_len=8, d_model=16, n_heads=2, depth=1)
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head = train_mod.SupervisedHead(16)
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enc.train(); head.train()
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opt = torch.optim.Adam([
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{"params": head.parameters(), "lr": 1e-3},
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{"params": enc.parameters(), "lr": 1e-5},
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], weight_decay=1e-4)
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# Tiny batch: 4 windows of length 16 (= 2 patches of patch_len=8)
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X = torch.randn(4, 16, 2)
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y = torch.randn(4)
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tokens = enc(X) # (4, 2, 16)
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h = tokens[:, -1, :] # (4, 16) — last token
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pred = head(h)
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loss = F.mse_loss(pred, y)
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loss.backward()
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enc_grads = [p.grad for p in enc.parameters() if p.grad is not None]
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assert len(enc_grads) > 0, "no encoder params received gradients"
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assert any(g.abs().max().item() > 0 for g in enc_grads), "all encoder grads are zero"
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@@ -102,9 +102,7 @@ def test_thin_hours_dropped(ph):
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# 5. Output parquet path and schema (integration — reads actual M1 zips if present)
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# 5. Output parquet path and schema (integration — reads actual M1 zips if present)
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def test_output_schema_from_zips(ph, tmp_path):
|
def test_output_schema_from_zips(ph, tmp_path):
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# Build a minimal fake zip structure
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import zipfile, io
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import zipfile, io
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# synthetic M1 CSV (histdata format: YYYYMMDD HHMMSS;O;H;L;C;V)
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rows = []
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rows = []
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for h in range(24):
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for h in range(24):
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for m in range(60):
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for m in range(60):
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@@ -124,3 +122,86 @@ def test_output_schema_from_zips(ph, tmp_path):
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df = pd.read_parquet(out_path)
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df = pd.read_parquet(out_path)
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assert set(["datetime", "close", "ret", "realized_vol"]).issubset(df.columns)
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assert set(["datetime", "close", "ret", "realized_vol"]).issubset(df.columns)
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assert len(df) > 0
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assert len(df) > 0
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# ── New OHLCV-derived features ────────────────────────────────────────────────
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def _make_m1_ohlcv(n_hours: int = 4, price: float = 1.1) -> pd.DataFrame:
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"""Synthetic M1 with distinct O, H, L, C so hl_range and ret_intrabar are nonzero."""
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rng = np.random.default_rng(7)
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ts = pd.date_range("2020-01-06 00:00", periods=n_hours * 60, freq="min")
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closes = price + np.cumsum(rng.normal(0, 0.0002, len(ts)))
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highs = closes + rng.uniform(0.0001, 0.0005, len(ts))
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lows = closes - rng.uniform(0.0001, 0.0005, len(ts))
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opens = np.roll(closes, 1); opens[0] = price
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return pd.DataFrame({"ts": ts, "open": opens, "high": highs, "low": lows, "close": closes})
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# 6. resample_to_hourly produces hl_range column
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def test_hourly_has_hl_range(ph):
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||||||
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m1 = _make_m1_ohlcv()
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||||||
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hourly = ph.resample_to_hourly(m1)
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||||||
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assert "hl_range" in hourly.columns, f"missing hl_range; cols={hourly.columns.tolist()}"
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||||||
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assert (hourly["hl_range"] > 0).all(), "hl_range should be positive"
|
||||||
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||||||
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||||||
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# 7. resample_to_hourly produces ret_intrabar column
|
||||||
|
def test_hourly_has_ret_intrabar(ph):
|
||||||
|
m1 = _make_m1_ohlcv()
|
||||||
|
hourly = ph.resample_to_hourly(m1)
|
||||||
|
assert "ret_intrabar" in hourly.columns, f"missing ret_intrabar; cols={hourly.columns.tolist()}"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
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|
||||||
|
# 8. hl_range = log(hourly_high / hourly_low)
|
||||||
|
def test_hl_range_formula(ph):
|
||||||
|
# Two hours; second has known H=1.105, L=1.095
|
||||||
|
ts0 = pd.date_range("2020-01-06 00:00", periods=60, freq="min")
|
||||||
|
ts1 = pd.date_range("2020-01-06 01:00", periods=60, freq="min")
|
||||||
|
closes = np.full(120, 1.1)
|
||||||
|
highs = np.full(120, 1.1)
|
||||||
|
lows = np.full(120, 1.1)
|
||||||
|
# second hour: known spread
|
||||||
|
highs[60:] = 1.105
|
||||||
|
lows[60:] = 1.095
|
||||||
|
m1 = pd.DataFrame({
|
||||||
|
"ts": np.concatenate([ts0, ts1]),
|
||||||
|
"open": closes, "high": highs, "low": lows, "close": closes,
|
||||||
|
})
|
||||||
|
hourly = ph.resample_to_hourly(m1)
|
||||||
|
assert len(hourly) >= 1
|
||||||
|
hl = hourly.iloc[-1]["hl_range"]
|
||||||
|
expected = float(np.log(1.105 / 1.095))
|
||||||
|
assert abs(hl - expected) < 1e-6, f"hl_range={hl:.8f}, expected={expected:.8f}"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 9. ret_intrabar = log(hourly_last_close / hourly_first_open)
|
||||||
|
def test_ret_intrabar_formula(ph):
|
||||||
|
ts0 = pd.date_range("2020-01-06 00:00", periods=60, freq="min")
|
||||||
|
ts1 = pd.date_range("2020-01-06 01:00", periods=60, freq="min")
|
||||||
|
closes = np.full(120, 1.1)
|
||||||
|
opens = np.full(120, 1.1)
|
||||||
|
# second hour: open=1.09, close=1.11
|
||||||
|
opens[60] = 1.09
|
||||||
|
closes[119] = 1.11
|
||||||
|
m1 = pd.DataFrame({
|
||||||
|
"ts": np.concatenate([ts0, ts1]),
|
||||||
|
"open": opens, "high": closes + 0.001, "low": closes - 0.001, "close": closes,
|
||||||
|
})
|
||||||
|
hourly = ph.resample_to_hourly(m1)
|
||||||
|
assert len(hourly) >= 1
|
||||||
|
rib = hourly.iloc[-1]["ret_intrabar"]
|
||||||
|
expected = float(np.log(1.11 / 1.09))
|
||||||
|
assert abs(rib - expected) < 1e-6, f"ret_intrabar={rib:.8f}, expected={expected:.8f}"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# 10. build() in train.py uses 2 feature channels (HPO: hl_range/ret_intrabar redundant)
|
||||||
|
def test_build_uses_2_channels(tmp_path):
|
||||||
|
import importlib.util, os
|
||||||
|
hourly_path = "data/processed/eurusd_hourly.parquet"
|
||||||
|
if not os.path.exists(hourly_path):
|
||||||
|
pytest.skip("eurusd_hourly.parquet not present")
|
||||||
|
spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("train_2ch", "train.py")
|
||||||
|
mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
|
||||||
|
spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
|
||||||
|
(Xtr, _), _ = mod.build()
|
||||||
|
assert Xtr.shape[2] == 2, f"expected 2 channels, got {Xtr.shape[2]}"
|
||||||
|
|||||||
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ import torch.nn.functional as F
|
|||||||
# --- agent-tunable knobs (all overridable via JEPA_* env vars for HPO) ---
|
# --- agent-tunable knobs (all overridable via JEPA_* env vars for HPO) ---
|
||||||
import os as _os
|
import os as _os
|
||||||
USE_HOURLY = True
|
USE_HOURLY = True
|
||||||
WINDOW = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_WINDOW", 240))
|
WINDOW = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_WINDOW", 120)) # HPO winner: 5-day context
|
||||||
PATCH_LEN = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PATCH_LEN", 24))
|
PATCH_LEN = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PATCH_LEN", 24))
|
||||||
D_MODEL = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_D_MODEL", 128))
|
D_MODEL = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_D_MODEL", 128))
|
||||||
DEPTH = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_DEPTH", 2))
|
DEPTH = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_DEPTH", 2))
|
||||||
@@ -32,6 +32,9 @@ EPOCHS = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_EPOCHS", 300))
|
|||||||
LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_LR", 3e-4))
|
LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_LR", 3e-4))
|
||||||
PHASE1_EPOCHS = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_EPOCHS", 200))
|
PHASE1_EPOCHS = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_EPOCHS", 200))
|
||||||
PHASE1_LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_LR", 1e-3))
|
PHASE1_LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_LR", 1e-3))
|
||||||
|
PHASE1_JOINT = bool(int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT", 1)))
|
||||||
|
PHASE1_JOINT_EPOCHS= int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT_EPOCHS", 30))
|
||||||
|
PHASE1_ENCODER_LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_ENCODER_LR", 3e-6))
|
||||||
SEED = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_SEED", 0))
|
SEED = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_SEED", 0))
|
||||||
# ---------------------------
|
# ---------------------------
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
@@ -154,7 +157,10 @@ def build():
|
|||||||
else:
|
else:
|
||||||
df = pd.read_parquet(daily_path).reset_index(drop=True)
|
df = pd.read_parquet(daily_path).reset_index(drop=True)
|
||||||
df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"])
|
df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"])
|
||||||
feats = df[["ret", "realized_vol"]].to_numpy(np.float32)
|
# 2-channel default (HPO: adding hl_range+ret_intrabar hurt — correlated with base feats)
|
||||||
|
# To experiment: change to ["ret", "realized_vol", "hl_range", "ret_intrabar"]
|
||||||
|
FEAT_COLS = ["ret", "realized_vol"]
|
||||||
|
feats = df[FEAT_COLS].to_numpy(np.float32)
|
||||||
target = df["realized_vol"].to_numpy(np.float32)
|
target = df["realized_vol"].to_numpy(np.float32)
|
||||||
tr_idx = df.index[df["date"].dt.year <= 2021].tolist()
|
tr_idx = df.index[df["date"].dt.year <= 2021].tolist()
|
||||||
te_idx = df.index[df["date"].dt.year >= 2022].tolist()
|
te_idx = df.index[df["date"].dt.year >= 2022].tolist()
|
||||||
@@ -222,27 +228,61 @@ def main():
|
|||||||
ss_tot = ((yte - yte.mean()) ** 2).sum()
|
ss_tot = ((yte - yte.mean()) ** 2).sum()
|
||||||
val_vol_r2 = float(1 - ss_res / ss_tot)
|
val_vol_r2 = float(1 - ss_res / ss_tot)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
# Phase-1: MLP supervised head on frozen embeddings
|
# Phase-1: MLP supervised head — joint or frozen-encoder path
|
||||||
# Standardise targets so the head trains on unit-scale signals.
|
|
||||||
ytr_mu = float(ytr.mean()); ytr_sd = float(ytr.std()) + 1e-8
|
ytr_mu = float(ytr.mean()); ytr_sd = float(ytr.std()) + 1e-8
|
||||||
ytr_z = (ytr - ytr_mu) / ytr_sd
|
ytr_z = (ytr - ytr_mu) / ytr_sd
|
||||||
head = SupervisedHead(D_MODEL).to(dev)
|
head = SupervisedHead(D_MODEL).to(dev)
|
||||||
head_opt = torch.optim.Adam(head.parameters(), lr=PHASE1_LR, weight_decay=1e-4)
|
p1_bs = min(BATCH_SIZE, len(Etr_n))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
# Shared tensors for the frozen-head warmup (used by both paths)
|
||||||
Etr_t = torch.tensor(Etr_n, device=dev)
|
Etr_t = torch.tensor(Etr_n, device=dev)
|
||||||
ytr_t = torch.tensor(ytr_z, device=dev)
|
ytr_z_t = torch.tensor(ytr_z, device=dev)
|
||||||
Ete_t = torch.tensor(Ete_n, device=dev)
|
Ete_t = torch.tensor(Ete_n, device=dev)
|
||||||
p1_bs = min(BATCH_SIZE, len(Etr_t))
|
|
||||||
N_tr_h = len(Etr_t)
|
N_tr_h = len(Etr_t)
|
||||||
# Real epoch iteration: shuffle full dataset each epoch
|
|
||||||
|
# Phase 1a: warm up head on frozen embeddings (both paths run this)
|
||||||
|
head_opt = torch.optim.Adam(head.parameters(), lr=PHASE1_LR, weight_decay=1e-4)
|
||||||
for _ in range(PHASE1_EPOCHS):
|
for _ in range(PHASE1_EPOCHS):
|
||||||
perm = torch.randperm(N_tr_h, device=dev)
|
perm = torch.randperm(N_tr_h, device=dev)
|
||||||
for start in range(0, N_tr_h, p1_bs):
|
for start in range(0, N_tr_h, p1_bs):
|
||||||
idx_h = perm[start:start + p1_bs]
|
idx_h = perm[start:start + p1_bs]
|
||||||
loss_h = F.mse_loss(head(Etr_t[idx_h]), ytr_t[idx_h])
|
loss_h = F.mse_loss(head(Etr_t[idx_h]), ytr_z_t[idx_h])
|
||||||
head_opt.zero_grad(); loss_h.backward(); head_opt.step()
|
head_opt.zero_grad(); loss_h.backward(); head_opt.step()
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if PHASE1_JOINT:
|
||||||
|
# Phase 1b: short joint fine-tuning — encoder nudged with tiny LR.
|
||||||
|
# Normalize live encoder output with FROZEN stats (mu_e, sd_e) so the
|
||||||
|
# head sees the same embedding distribution it was warmed up on.
|
||||||
|
enc.train()
|
||||||
|
mu_e_t = torch.tensor(mu_e, device=dev)
|
||||||
|
sd_e_t = torch.tensor(sd_e, device=dev)
|
||||||
|
Xtr_t = torch.tensor(Xtr, device=dev)
|
||||||
|
joint_opt = torch.optim.Adam([
|
||||||
|
{"params": head.parameters(), "lr": PHASE1_LR * 0.1},
|
||||||
|
{"params": enc.parameters(), "lr": PHASE1_ENCODER_LR},
|
||||||
|
], weight_decay=1e-4)
|
||||||
|
for _ in range(PHASE1_JOINT_EPOCHS):
|
||||||
|
perm = torch.randperm(len(Xtr_t), device=dev)
|
||||||
|
for start in range(0, len(Xtr_t), p1_bs):
|
||||||
|
idx_j = perm[start:start + p1_bs]
|
||||||
|
h_raw = enc(Xtr_t[idx_j])[:, -1, :]
|
||||||
|
h_n = (h_raw - mu_e_t) / sd_e_t # frozen-stats normalisation
|
||||||
|
loss_j = F.mse_loss(head(h_n), ytr_z_t[idx_j])
|
||||||
|
joint_opt.zero_grad(); loss_j.backward(); joint_opt.step()
|
||||||
|
enc.eval()
|
||||||
|
# Re-extract test embeddings with fine-tuned encoder, same normalisation
|
||||||
|
with torch.no_grad():
|
||||||
|
chunks = []
|
||||||
|
for i in range(0, len(Xte), p1_bs):
|
||||||
|
t = torch.tensor(Xte[i:i+p1_bs], device=dev)
|
||||||
|
h = enc(t)[:, -1, :]
|
||||||
|
chunks.append(((h - mu_e_t) / sd_e_t).cpu().numpy())
|
||||||
|
Ete_t = torch.tensor(np.concatenate(chunks), device=dev)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
head.eval()
|
head.eval()
|
||||||
with torch.no_grad():
|
with torch.no_grad():
|
||||||
pred_h_z = head(Ete_t).cpu().numpy()
|
pred_h_z = head(Ete_t).cpu().numpy()
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
pred_h = pred_h_z * ytr_sd + ytr_mu # de-standardise
|
pred_h = pred_h_z * ytr_sd + ytr_mu # de-standardise
|
||||||
phase1_r2 = float(1 - ((yte - pred_h) ** 2).sum() / ss_tot)
|
phase1_r2 = float(1 - ((yte - pred_h) ** 2).sum() / ss_tot)
|
||||||
print("phase1_r2 = %.4f (n_test=%d)" % (phase1_r2, len(yte)))
|
print("phase1_r2 = %.4f (n_test=%d)" % (phase1_r2, len(yte)))
|
||||||
@@ -268,7 +308,9 @@ def main():
|
|||||||
df2 = pd.read_parquet(daily_path2).reset_index(drop=True)
|
df2 = pd.read_parquet(daily_path2).reset_index(drop=True)
|
||||||
df2["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df2["date"])
|
df2["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df2["date"])
|
||||||
tr_mask = df2["date"].dt.year <= 2021
|
tr_mask = df2["date"].dt.year <= 2021
|
||||||
feats2 = df2[["ret", "realized_vol"]].to_numpy(np.float32)
|
base2 = ["ret", "realized_vol"]
|
||||||
|
extra2 = [c for c in ["hl_range", "ret_intrabar"] if c in df2.columns]
|
||||||
|
feats2 = df2[base2 + extra2].to_numpy(np.float32)
|
||||||
mu2 = feats2[tr_mask].mean(0); sd2 = feats2[tr_mask].std(0) + 1e-8
|
mu2 = feats2[tr_mask].mean(0); sd2 = feats2[tr_mask].std(0) + 1e-8
|
||||||
fn2 = (feats2 - mu2) / sd2
|
fn2 = (feats2 - mu2) / sd2
|
||||||
def _export_windows(year_mask):
|
def _export_windows(year_mask):
|
||||||
|
|||||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user