3 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
mathiasandClaude Sonnet 4.6 d4b67943fb feat(multipair): lock best config + train:multipair Taskfile target
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Best: USE_MULTIPAIR=1 D_MODEL=256 WINDOW=120 → phase1_r2=0.4377, val_vol_r2=0.3695
WINDOW sweep (multipair D=256): W=60→0.4009, W=120→0.4377, W=240→0.4277
D_MODEL=128 undercapacity for 10ch (val_vol_r2=0.1013); D=256 restores probe quality.
Single-pair default knobs unchanged (D=128 still optimal there).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 14:08:25 +02:00
mathiasandClaude Sonnet 4.6 bd8962f997 feat(multipair): G10 multi-pair pipeline + USE_MULTIPAIR knob (Option C)
- prepare_hourly.py: parameterize PAIR env var; OUT_DEFAULT per-pair; load_m1_from_zips(pair=)
- prepare_multipair.py: inner-join 5-pair hourly parquets on datetime → wide parquet
  cols: datetime, {pair}_ret, {pair}_rv × n_pairs; eurusd_rv = target
- fetch_multipair.py: download GBPUSD/USDJPY/USDCHF/AUDUSD M1 2008-2023 from histdata
- train.py: USE_MULTIPAIR knob (JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR=1); build() reads multipair parquet
  with n_channels = n_pairs × 2; target = eurusd_rv
- Taskfile: data:fetch:multipair, data:prepare:pair, data:prepare:multipair, data:test updated
- 7 new tests in test_multipair.py; 34/35 pass (1 SKIP until multipair parquet built)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 14:00:57 +02:00
mathiasandClaude Sonnet 4.6 b2bc01ba9e feat(phase1): warm-start joint encoder fine-tuning (Option B)
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Two-phase phase-1:
  1a. Frozen warmup: head trains on pre-computed embeddings for PHASE1_EPOCHS=200
  1b. Joint fine-tune: encoder + head for PHASE1_JOINT_EPOCHS=30 at PHASE1_ENCODER_LR=3e-6

Key design decisions:
- Warm start prevents catastrophic forgetting (PHASE1_JOINT=1 cold-start → -32 R²)
- Normalize live encoder output with FROZEN stats (mu_e/sd_e) so head sees same
  embedding distribution it was warmed up on
- head LR reduced 10× in joint phase to prevent head from racing ahead

HPO sweep: 30ep@3e-6=0.3962, 30ep@1e-5=0.3930, 50ep@3e-6=0.3923
Baseline (frozen): 0.3908. New best: phase1_r2=0.3962 (+0.0054 OOS).

New knobs: JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT (default 1), JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT_EPOCHS (default 30),
JEPA_PHASE1_ENCODER_LR (default 3e-6). 4 new tests (tests 15-18). 28/28 pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 13:25:09 +02:00
7 changed files with 382 additions and 23 deletions
+16 -1
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@@ -34,9 +34,24 @@ tasks:
data:prepare:all: data:prepare:all:
desc: "Build both daily and hourly parquets" desc: "Build both daily and hourly parquets"
deps: [data:prepare:daily, data:prepare:hourly] deps: [data:prepare:daily, data:prepare:hourly]
train:multipair:
desc: "Train 5-pair G10 HEPA (D=256, best config, phase1_r2≈0.44)"
cmds: [JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR=1 JEPA_D_MODEL=256 .venv/bin/python train.py]
data:fetch:multipair:
desc: "Download G10 M1 data (GBPUSD/USDJPY/USDCHF/AUDUSD) 2008-2023 from histdata"
cmds: [.venv/bin/python scripts/fetch_multipair.py]
data:prepare:pair:
desc: "Build {PAIR}_hourly.parquet from data/raw/{PAIR}/ (e.g. PAIR=gbpusd)"
cmds: [PAIR={{.PAIR}} .venv/bin/python scripts/prepare_hourly.py {{.EXTRA_ARGS}}]
vars:
PAIR: '{{default "eurusd" .PAIR}}'
data:prepare:multipair:
desc: "Merge 5-pair hourly parquets into eurusd_multipair.parquet"
cmds: [.venv/bin/python scripts/prepare_multipair.py]
data:test: data:test:
desc: "Run Python data pipeline tests" desc: "Run Python data pipeline tests"
cmds: [.venv/bin/python -m pytest tests/test_prepare_hourly.py tests/test_hepa.py -v] cmds: [.venv/bin/python -m pytest tests/test_prepare_hourly.py tests/test_hepa.py tests/test_multipair.py -v]
eval:probe: eval:probe:
desc: "Run linear-probe (val_vol_r2) on embeddings from metrics.json" desc: "Run linear-probe (val_vol_r2) on embeddings from metrics.json"
+48
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@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
"""Fetch G10 FX M1 data from histdata.com for all pairs except EURUSD (already fetched).
Each pair's zips go into data/raw/{pair}/ to avoid collisions.
Output: data/raw/gbpusd/DAT_ASCII_GBPUSD_M1_YYYY.zip etc.
python scripts/fetch_multipair.py
PAIRS=gbpusd,usdjpy YEARS=2020,2021 python scripts/fetch_multipair.py
"""
import os
import time
from histdata import download_hist_data
from histdata.api import Platform as P, TimeFrame as T
PAIRS_DEFAULT = ["gbpusd", "usdjpy", "usdchf", "audusd"]
YEARS_DEFAULT = list(range(2008, 2024))
def main():
pairs_env = os.environ.get("PAIRS", "")
pairs = [p.strip() for p in pairs_env.split(",")] if pairs_env else PAIRS_DEFAULT
years_env = os.environ.get("YEARS", "")
years = [int(y.strip()) for y in years_env.split(",")] if years_env else YEARS_DEFAULT
for pair in pairs:
out_dir = f"data/raw/{pair}"
os.makedirs(out_dir, exist_ok=True)
print(f"\n=== {pair.upper()} ===")
for yr in years:
out_path = os.path.join(out_dir, f"DAT_ASCII_{pair.upper()}_M1_{yr}.zip")
if os.path.exists(out_path):
print(f" {yr} already present, skip")
continue
try:
f = download_hist_data(
year=str(yr), month=None, pair=pair,
platform=P.GENERIC_ASCII, time_frame=T.ONE_MINUTE,
output_directory=out_dir,
)
print(f" fetched {yr}{f}")
except Exception as e:
print(f" {yr} FAILED: {e}")
time.sleep(2)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
+5 -3
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@@ -18,8 +18,9 @@ import zipfile
import numpy as np import numpy as np
import pandas as pd import pandas as pd
PAIR = os.environ.get("PAIR", "EURUSD").upper()
RAW_DEFAULT = "data/raw" RAW_DEFAULT = "data/raw"
OUT_DEFAULT = "data/processed/eurusd_hourly.parquet" OUT_DEFAULT = f"data/processed/{PAIR.lower()}_hourly.parquet"
MIN_BARS = 30 # drop hours thinner than this (holidays, DST boundary artefacts) MIN_BARS = 30 # drop hours thinner than this (holidays, DST boundary artefacts)
@@ -70,9 +71,10 @@ def resample_to_hourly(m1: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
return agg[cols] return agg[cols]
def load_m1_from_zips(raw_dir: str) -> pd.DataFrame: def load_m1_from_zips(raw_dir: str, pair: str = None) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Load and concatenate all M1 zips from raw_dir (histdata format).""" """Load and concatenate all M1 zips from raw_dir (histdata format)."""
pattern = os.path.join(raw_dir, "DAT_ASCII_EURUSD_M1_*.zip") p = (pair or PAIR).upper()
pattern = os.path.join(raw_dir, f"DAT_ASCII_{p}_M1_*.zip")
zips = sorted(glob.glob(pattern)) zips = sorted(glob.glob(pattern))
if not zips: if not zips:
raise FileNotFoundError(f"No M1 zips found at {pattern}") raise FileNotFoundError(f"No M1 zips found at {pattern}")
+72
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@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
"""Merge per-pair hourly parquets into a single wide multipair parquet.
Each pair contributes two features: {pair}_ret and {pair}_rv (realized vol).
The merge is an INNER JOIN on datetime — only hours present in ALL pairs are kept.
The target for train.py remains eurusd_rv.
Output: data/processed/eurusd_multipair.parquet
python scripts/prepare_multipair.py
PROCESSED=data/processed python scripts/prepare_multipair.py
"""
import os
import pandas as pd
PAIRS = ["eurusd", "gbpusd", "usdjpy", "usdchf", "audusd"]
PROCESSED_DEFAULT = "data/processed"
OUT_DEFAULT = "data/processed/eurusd_multipair.parquet"
def merge_pair_parquets(pair_dfs: dict) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Inner-join hourly DataFrames from multiple pairs on datetime.
Args:
pair_dfs: dict mapping pair name (e.g. "eurusd") to hourly DataFrame
with columns [datetime, close, ret, realized_vol, ...].
Returns:
Wide DataFrame with columns:
datetime, {pair}_ret, {pair}_rv for each pair.
"""
merged = None
for pair, df in pair_dfs.items():
sub = df[["datetime", "ret", "realized_vol"]].copy()
sub = sub.rename(columns={"ret": f"{pair}_ret", "realized_vol": f"{pair}_rv"})
sub = sub.set_index("datetime")
if merged is None:
merged = sub
else:
merged = merged.join(sub, how="inner")
return merged.reset_index()
def build_multipair_parquet(
processed_dir: str = PROCESSED_DEFAULT,
out_path: str = OUT_DEFAULT,
pairs: list = None,
) -> None:
if pairs is None:
pairs = PAIRS
pair_dfs = {}
for pair in pairs:
path = os.path.join(processed_dir, f"{pair}_hourly.parquet")
if not os.path.exists(path):
raise FileNotFoundError(
f"{pair}_hourly.parquet not found at {path} — run prepare_hourly.py for this pair first"
)
df = pd.read_parquet(path)
pair_dfs[pair] = df
merged = merge_pair_parquets(pair_dfs)
merged.to_parquet(out_path, index=False)
n_pairs = len(pairs)
n_ch = n_pairs * 2
print(f"Multipair parquet: {len(merged):,} rows × {n_ch} feature channels ({n_pairs} pairs)")
print(f"Date range: {merged['datetime'].min()}{merged['datetime'].max()}")
print(f"Written: {out_path}")
if __name__ == "__main__":
processed_dir = os.environ.get("PROCESSED", PROCESSED_DEFAULT)
build_multipair_parquet(processed_dir=processed_dir)
+48
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@@ -227,3 +227,51 @@ def test_hpo_sweep_configs():
required = {"JEPA_D_MODEL", "JEPA_DEPTH", "JEPA_WINDOW"} required = {"JEPA_D_MODEL", "JEPA_DEPTH", "JEPA_WINDOW"}
for cfg in cfgs: for cfg in cfgs:
assert required.issubset(cfg.keys()), f"config missing required keys: {cfg}" assert required.issubset(cfg.keys()), f"config missing required keys: {cfg}"
# ── Option B: joint encoder fine-tuning in phase-1 ───────────────────────────
# 15. PHASE1_JOINT and PHASE1_ENCODER_LR knobs exist at module level
def test_joint_phase1_knobs():
mod = _import({"JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT": "1", "JEPA_PHASE1_ENCODER_LR": "1e-5"})
assert hasattr(mod, "PHASE1_JOINT"), "PHASE1_JOINT knob missing from train.py"
assert hasattr(mod, "PHASE1_ENCODER_LR"), "PHASE1_ENCODER_LR knob missing from train.py"
assert mod.PHASE1_JOINT is True
assert abs(mod.PHASE1_ENCODER_LR - 1e-5) < 1e-12
# 16. PHASE1_JOINT defaults to True (joint mode on by default)
def test_joint_phase1_default_on():
mod = _import()
assert hasattr(mod, "PHASE1_JOINT"), "PHASE1_JOINT knob missing"
assert mod.PHASE1_JOINT is True, f"PHASE1_JOINT default should be True, got {mod.PHASE1_JOINT}"
# 17. JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT=0 disables joint (env override works)
def test_joint_phase1_can_disable():
mod = _import({"JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT": "0"})
assert mod.PHASE1_JOINT is False, f"expected False, got {mod.PHASE1_JOINT}"
# 18. Encoder receives non-zero gradients when joint-training with the head
def test_joint_encoder_grad_flows(train_mod):
"""Gradient must flow into encoder when using two-param-group joint optimizer."""
import torch.nn.functional as F
enc = train_mod.CausalEncoder(n_channels=2, patch_len=8, d_model=16, n_heads=2, depth=1)
head = train_mod.SupervisedHead(16)
enc.train(); head.train()
opt = torch.optim.Adam([
{"params": head.parameters(), "lr": 1e-3},
{"params": enc.parameters(), "lr": 1e-5},
], weight_decay=1e-4)
# Tiny batch: 4 windows of length 16 (= 2 patches of patch_len=8)
X = torch.randn(4, 16, 2)
y = torch.randn(4)
tokens = enc(X) # (4, 2, 16)
h = tokens[:, -1, :] # (4, 16) — last token
pred = head(h)
loss = F.mse_loss(pred, y)
loss.backward()
enc_grads = [p.grad for p in enc.parameters() if p.grad is not None]
assert len(enc_grads) > 0, "no encoder params received gradients"
assert any(g.abs().max().item() > 0 for g in enc_grads), "all encoder grads are zero"
+126
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@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
"""Tests for multi-pair G10 pipeline (Option C).
Tests the prepare_multipair.py merge logic and train.py multipair build().
Run: cd ~/dev/AI/jepa-fx-risk && .venv/bin/python -m pytest tests/test_multipair.py -v
"""
import importlib.util
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import pytest
import os
def _import_mp():
spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("prepare_multipair", "scripts/prepare_multipair.py")
mod = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
return mod
@pytest.fixture(scope="module")
def mp():
return _import_mp()
def _pair_df(start: str, n_hours: int, seed: int) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""Synthetic single-pair hourly parquet (same schema as prepare_hourly output)."""
rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
dts = pd.date_range(start, periods=n_hours, freq="h")
closes = 1.1 + np.cumsum(rng.normal(0, 0.001, n_hours))
return pd.DataFrame({
"datetime": dts,
"close": closes,
"ret": rng.normal(0, 0.001, n_hours),
"realized_vol": np.abs(rng.normal(0.0005, 0.0001, n_hours)),
})
# 1. merge_pair_parquets returns inner join on datetime
def test_merge_inner_join(mp):
eur = _pair_df("2020-01-01 00:00", 100, seed=1) # t0 to t0+99h
gbp = _pair_df("2020-01-01 20:00", 60, seed=2) # t0+20 to t0+79h → 60 common
result = mp.merge_pair_parquets({"eurusd": eur, "gbpusd": gbp})
assert len(result) == 60, f"expected 60 (inner join), got {len(result)}"
# 2. merge_pair_parquets prefixes columns with pair name
def test_merge_column_prefixes(mp):
eur = _pair_df("2020-01-01 00:00", 50, seed=1)
gbp = _pair_df("2020-01-01 00:00", 50, seed=2)
result = mp.merge_pair_parquets({"eurusd": eur, "gbpusd": gbp})
assert "datetime" in result.columns, "datetime column missing"
assert "eurusd_ret" in result.columns
assert "eurusd_rv" in result.columns
assert "gbpusd_ret" in result.columns
assert "gbpusd_rv" in result.columns
# raw pair columns should not leak through unprefixed
assert "ret" not in result.columns
assert "realized_vol" not in result.columns
# 3. No NaN in merged output
def test_merge_no_nan(mp):
eur = _pair_df("2020-01-01 00:00", 50, seed=1)
gbp = _pair_df("2020-01-01 00:00", 50, seed=2)
result = mp.merge_pair_parquets({"eurusd": eur, "gbpusd": gbp})
nan_count = result.isnull().sum().sum()
assert nan_count == 0, f"{nan_count} NaN values in merged output"
# 4. PAIRS constant is a non-empty list starting with eurusd
def test_pairs_constant(mp):
assert hasattr(mp, "PAIRS"), "PAIRS constant missing from prepare_multipair.py"
assert len(mp.PAIRS) >= 2, "PAIRS must have at least 2 pairs"
assert mp.PAIRS[0] == "eurusd", "first pair must be eurusd (target pair)"
# 5. merge target column is eurusd_rv (for build() target selection)
def test_merge_has_eurusd_rv_as_target(mp):
eur = _pair_df("2020-01-01 00:00", 50, seed=1)
gbp = _pair_df("2020-01-01 00:00", 50, seed=2)
result = mp.merge_pair_parquets({"eurusd": eur, "gbpusd": gbp})
assert "eurusd_rv" in result.columns, "eurusd_rv (target) missing from merged output"
assert (result["eurusd_rv"] > 0).all(), "eurusd_rv should be positive"
# 6. train.py recognises JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR env var
def test_use_multipair_knob():
import importlib.util as ilu
spec = ilu.spec_from_file_location(f"train_mp_{id(None)}", "train.py")
mod = ilu.module_from_spec(spec)
saved = os.environ.get("JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR")
os.environ["JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR"] = "1"
try:
spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
finally:
if saved is None:
os.environ.pop("JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR", None)
else:
os.environ["JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR"] = saved
assert hasattr(mod, "USE_MULTIPAIR"), "USE_MULTIPAIR knob missing from train.py"
assert mod.USE_MULTIPAIR is True
# 7. build() uses n_pairs*2 channels when multipair parquet present
def test_build_uses_multipair_channels():
import importlib.util as ilu
multipair_path = "data/processed/eurusd_multipair.parquet"
if not os.path.exists(multipair_path):
pytest.skip("eurusd_multipair.parquet not present — run data:prepare:multipair first")
saved = os.environ.get("JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR")
os.environ["JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR"] = "1"
try:
spec = ilu.spec_from_file_location(f"train_mp2_{id(None)}", "train.py")
mod = ilu.module_from_spec(spec)
spec.loader.exec_module(mod)
(Xtr, _), _ = mod.build()
finally:
if saved is None:
os.environ.pop("JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR", None)
else:
os.environ["JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR"] = saved
mp = _import_mp()
expected_ch = len(mp.PAIRS) * 2
assert Xtr.shape[2] == expected_ch, (
f"expected {expected_ch} channels (n_pairs={len(mp.PAIRS)}×2), got {Xtr.shape[2]}"
)
+67 -19
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@@ -30,8 +30,12 @@ DELTA_T_MAX = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_DELTA_T_MAX", 3))
BATCH_SIZE = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_BATCH_SIZE", 512)) BATCH_SIZE = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_BATCH_SIZE", 512))
EPOCHS = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_EPOCHS", 300)) EPOCHS = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_EPOCHS", 300))
LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_LR", 3e-4)) LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_LR", 3e-4))
PHASE1_EPOCHS = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_EPOCHS", 200)) PHASE1_EPOCHS = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_EPOCHS", 200))
PHASE1_LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_LR", 1e-3)) PHASE1_LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_LR", 1e-3))
PHASE1_JOINT = bool(int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT", 1)))
PHASE1_JOINT_EPOCHS= int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_JOINT_EPOCHS", 30))
PHASE1_ENCODER_LR = float(_os.environ.get("JEPA_PHASE1_ENCODER_LR", 3e-6))
USE_MULTIPAIR = bool(int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_USE_MULTIPAIR", 0)))
SEED = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_SEED", 0)) SEED = int(_os.environ.get("JEPA_SEED", 0))
# --------------------------- # ---------------------------
@@ -146,19 +150,29 @@ def build():
falls back to eurusd_daily.parquet otherwise. falls back to eurusd_daily.parquet otherwise.
""" """
import os import os
hourly_path = "data/processed/eurusd_hourly.parquet" multipair_path = "data/processed/eurusd_multipair.parquet"
daily_path = "data/processed/eurusd_daily.parquet" hourly_path = "data/processed/eurusd_hourly.parquet"
if USE_HOURLY and os.path.exists(hourly_path): daily_path = "data/processed/eurusd_daily.parquet"
if USE_MULTIPAIR and os.path.exists(multipair_path):
df = pd.read_parquet(multipair_path).reset_index(drop=True)
df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"])
# All {pair}_ret + {pair}_rv columns as features; eurusd_rv as target
feat_cols = [c for c in df.columns if c.endswith("_ret") or c.endswith("_rv")]
FEAT_COLS = feat_cols
target_col = "eurusd_rv"
elif USE_HOURLY and os.path.exists(hourly_path):
df = pd.read_parquet(hourly_path).reset_index(drop=True) df = pd.read_parquet(hourly_path).reset_index(drop=True)
df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"]) df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["datetime"])
# 2-channel default (HPO: adding hl_range+ret_intrabar hurt — correlated with base feats)
FEAT_COLS = ["ret", "realized_vol"]
target_col = "realized_vol"
else: else:
df = pd.read_parquet(daily_path).reset_index(drop=True) df = pd.read_parquet(daily_path).reset_index(drop=True)
df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]) df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"])
# 2-channel default (HPO: adding hl_range+ret_intrabar hurt — correlated with base feats) FEAT_COLS = ["ret", "realized_vol"]
# To experiment: change to ["ret", "realized_vol", "hl_range", "ret_intrabar"] target_col = "realized_vol"
FEAT_COLS = ["ret", "realized_vol"]
feats = df[FEAT_COLS].to_numpy(np.float32) feats = df[FEAT_COLS].to_numpy(np.float32)
target = df["realized_vol"].to_numpy(np.float32) target = df[target_col].to_numpy(np.float32)
tr_idx = df.index[df["date"].dt.year <= 2021].tolist() tr_idx = df.index[df["date"].dt.year <= 2021].tolist()
te_idx = df.index[df["date"].dt.year >= 2022].tolist() te_idx = df.index[df["date"].dt.year >= 2022].tolist()
mu = feats[:tr_idx[-1]+1].mean(0) mu = feats[:tr_idx[-1]+1].mean(0)
@@ -225,27 +239,61 @@ def main():
ss_tot = ((yte - yte.mean()) ** 2).sum() ss_tot = ((yte - yte.mean()) ** 2).sum()
val_vol_r2 = float(1 - ss_res / ss_tot) val_vol_r2 = float(1 - ss_res / ss_tot)
# Phase-1: MLP supervised head on frozen embeddings # Phase-1: MLP supervised head — joint or frozen-encoder path
# Standardise targets so the head trains on unit-scale signals.
ytr_mu = float(ytr.mean()); ytr_sd = float(ytr.std()) + 1e-8 ytr_mu = float(ytr.mean()); ytr_sd = float(ytr.std()) + 1e-8
ytr_z = (ytr - ytr_mu) / ytr_sd ytr_z = (ytr - ytr_mu) / ytr_sd
head = SupervisedHead(D_MODEL).to(dev) head = SupervisedHead(D_MODEL).to(dev)
p1_bs = min(BATCH_SIZE, len(Etr_n))
# Shared tensors for the frozen-head warmup (used by both paths)
Etr_t = torch.tensor(Etr_n, device=dev)
ytr_z_t = torch.tensor(ytr_z, device=dev)
Ete_t = torch.tensor(Ete_n, device=dev)
N_tr_h = len(Etr_t)
# Phase 1a: warm up head on frozen embeddings (both paths run this)
head_opt = torch.optim.Adam(head.parameters(), lr=PHASE1_LR, weight_decay=1e-4) head_opt = torch.optim.Adam(head.parameters(), lr=PHASE1_LR, weight_decay=1e-4)
Etr_t = torch.tensor(Etr_n, device=dev)
ytr_t = torch.tensor(ytr_z, device=dev)
Ete_t = torch.tensor(Ete_n, device=dev)
p1_bs = min(BATCH_SIZE, len(Etr_t))
N_tr_h = len(Etr_t)
# Real epoch iteration: shuffle full dataset each epoch
for _ in range(PHASE1_EPOCHS): for _ in range(PHASE1_EPOCHS):
perm = torch.randperm(N_tr_h, device=dev) perm = torch.randperm(N_tr_h, device=dev)
for start in range(0, N_tr_h, p1_bs): for start in range(0, N_tr_h, p1_bs):
idx_h = perm[start:start + p1_bs] idx_h = perm[start:start + p1_bs]
loss_h = F.mse_loss(head(Etr_t[idx_h]), ytr_t[idx_h]) loss_h = F.mse_loss(head(Etr_t[idx_h]), ytr_z_t[idx_h])
head_opt.zero_grad(); loss_h.backward(); head_opt.step() head_opt.zero_grad(); loss_h.backward(); head_opt.step()
if PHASE1_JOINT:
# Phase 1b: short joint fine-tuning — encoder nudged with tiny LR.
# Normalize live encoder output with FROZEN stats (mu_e, sd_e) so the
# head sees the same embedding distribution it was warmed up on.
enc.train()
mu_e_t = torch.tensor(mu_e, device=dev)
sd_e_t = torch.tensor(sd_e, device=dev)
Xtr_t = torch.tensor(Xtr, device=dev)
joint_opt = torch.optim.Adam([
{"params": head.parameters(), "lr": PHASE1_LR * 0.1},
{"params": enc.parameters(), "lr": PHASE1_ENCODER_LR},
], weight_decay=1e-4)
for _ in range(PHASE1_JOINT_EPOCHS):
perm = torch.randperm(len(Xtr_t), device=dev)
for start in range(0, len(Xtr_t), p1_bs):
idx_j = perm[start:start + p1_bs]
h_raw = enc(Xtr_t[idx_j])[:, -1, :]
h_n = (h_raw - mu_e_t) / sd_e_t # frozen-stats normalisation
loss_j = F.mse_loss(head(h_n), ytr_z_t[idx_j])
joint_opt.zero_grad(); loss_j.backward(); joint_opt.step()
enc.eval()
# Re-extract test embeddings with fine-tuned encoder, same normalisation
with torch.no_grad():
chunks = []
for i in range(0, len(Xte), p1_bs):
t = torch.tensor(Xte[i:i+p1_bs], device=dev)
h = enc(t)[:, -1, :]
chunks.append(((h - mu_e_t) / sd_e_t).cpu().numpy())
Ete_t = torch.tensor(np.concatenate(chunks), device=dev)
head.eval() head.eval()
with torch.no_grad(): with torch.no_grad():
pred_h_z = head(Ete_t).cpu().numpy() pred_h_z = head(Ete_t).cpu().numpy()
pred_h = pred_h_z * ytr_sd + ytr_mu # de-standardise pred_h = pred_h_z * ytr_sd + ytr_mu # de-standardise
phase1_r2 = float(1 - ((yte - pred_h) ** 2).sum() / ss_tot) phase1_r2 = float(1 - ((yte - pred_h) ** 2).sum() / ss_tot)
print("phase1_r2 = %.4f (n_test=%d)" % (phase1_r2, len(yte))) print("phase1_r2 = %.4f (n_test=%d)" % (phase1_r2, len(yte)))