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tapir/docs/research/local-model-adjudicator-sweep-2026-10-01.md
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mathiasandClaude Sonnet 5.5 e182a6b07d docs(research): can a local model adjudicate two ASR transcripts?
Eleven local models, 120 calls each, scored against the speaker's blind answers
on 30 disagreements, with pass criteria fixed before the run. gemma4-31b (97%)
and gemma4-26b (92%) pass; nothing else clears accuracy and order-consistency.
Records why 31b is slow (MLX gives the same speed; Low Power Mode is the
unproven suspect) and the caveats: 30 items, one recording, thinking models
under-budgeted. Aggregate numbers only; this repo is public.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-10-01 23:14:27 +02:00

4.8 KiB

Can a local model adjudicate two ASR transcripts? (tapir#33, 2026-10-01)

Question: when iguana/kb-whisper and iguana/pianissimo disagree about a word or phrase, can a local model say which reading is right, well enough to merge the two transcripts? Ground truth: the speaker's own blind answers on 30 disagreements of one real recording (see asr-kb-whisper-vs-pianissimo-2026-10-01.md; no transcript text is recorded here, this repo is public). Reference: Claude Opus 5.5 agreed with the speaker on all 30.

Method

  • Items: 30 disagreement spans that Opus had picked as changing meaning, the speaker's verdict as truth (pianissimo right 17, kb-whisper right 13).
  • Prompt: one fixed English instruction (two transcriptions of Swedish speech differ at ONE marked spot; say which reading the speaker most likely said; reply ANSWER: 1|2|UNSURE plus one sentence). Each item was asked in both reading orders and in two contexts: narrow (+-8 words) and wide (+-100 words). 120 calls per model, temperature 0.
  • Models: 11, all local (koala/*, iguana/*): nothing left the homelab. Run one iguana model at a time, each unloaded afterwards, to avoid the memory pressure behind infra#273; whisper was confirmed healthy afterwards.
  • Pass criteria, fixed before the run: wide context, strict accuracy >= 80% (an unparseable or "unsure" answer counts as wrong), order-swap consistency >= 85%, unparseable <= 10%.

Results (wide context, 60 calls per model)

Model Correct 95% CI Same pick when order swapped Unparseable s/call Pass
iguana/gemma4-31b 58 = 97% 89-99% 93% 0 10.4 yes
iguana/gemma4-26b 55 = 92% 82-96% 93% 0 2.0 yes
iguana/ornith-35b 51 = 85% 74-92% 77% 0 2.5 no (consistency)
koala/phi4-14b 50 = 83% 72-91% 80% 0 1.0 no (consistency)
koala/qwen36-35b-a3b 49 = 82% 70-89% 83% 0 3.3 no (consistency)
iguana/granite4 47 = 78% 66-87% 83% 0 4.6 no
iguana/qwen3-14b 44 = 73% 61-83% 87% 0 4.4 no (accuracy)
iguana/gpt-oss-20b 40 = 67% 54-77% 100% 17 11.2 no (unparseable)
koala/phi4-mini 37 = 62% 49-73% 24% 1 0.5 no
iguana/gemma4-26b-think 23 = 38% 27-51% 100% 37 15.3 no (unparseable)
koala/qwen35-9b-fast 0 n/a n/a 60 7.2 no (no output)

Narrow context only (+-8 words) costs 6-12 points for the models that pass: gemma4-31b 92%, gemma4-26b 83%, ornith-35b 80%. Context is not decoration: Opus also used evidence from elsewhere in the recording (an amount stated earlier, a term that recurs).

Position bias: the passing models pick "Reading 1" 47-51% of the time. phi4-mini picks it 15% and flips its answer when the order is swapped 76% of the time: it carries almost no signal.

Reading it

  • Two models pass: the gemma4 pair. Both clear the bar and neither shows position bias. 26b is ~5x faster; their intervals overlap, so 30 items cannot separate 92% from 97%.
  • The thinking models were not tested fairly. gpt-oss-20b and gemma4-26b-think spend the 600-token budget reasoning and often never reach the answer line. When gemma4-26b-think did answer, it was right 23 of 23; gpt-oss-20b 93% of the answered. A larger budget would make them eligible; at 15 s a call it would not make them practical.

What this does not show

  • Thirty items, one recording, one speaker, one domain. The 30 were chosen by Opus as decidable, so they overstate how easy the typical disagreement is; ~350 others are mostly spelling, compounds and fillers, which no ground truth covers.
  • Opus agreeing 30/30 is not a measure of Opus over all 380 disagreements.
  • Accuracy was measured at temperature 0 on one prompt; no prompt tuning was tried.
  • The speaker's answers are the only truth; they are one person's recollection of what they said.

Why gemma4-31b is slow, and what was ruled out

On iguana (M2 Ultra, 64 GB) the dense 31B runs at 103 tok/s prefill, 7.9 tok/s decode; the 26B MoE at 641 and 39.6. Ruled out as the cause: memory pressure (no swap, 45% free, model 100% on GPU), context length (32k vs 4k made no difference), and the inference engine — MLX 4-bit of the same model measured 76 tok/s prefill and 8.6 decode, the same within noise. (Terse output saves only ~3.6 s of ~9.3 s because prefill dominates.) Two unrelated engines at the same speed points at the machine: ~140 GB/s effective memory bandwidth on a part rated for 800, and iguana has macOS Low Power Mode on (pmset lowpowermode 1). That is the leading suspect and is not proven: turning it off needs root and was not done. A first MLX benchmark was wrong because mlx_lm.server caches prompts; the figures above are from the corrected run.