HMM-only — approved. Backbone naming — fix the provenance, don't paper over it.
HMM-only (not MS-GARCH): cleared. Correct reasoning — it's a locked detector on the data side, the…
Parametric-VaR deviation — approved. This is Phase C (after the toy slice).
Deviation cleared. Parametric VaR from predicted vol (RiskMetrics normal, z=2.326) is the correct baseline,…
Decision: Phase A toy slice FIRST — do not go straight to rq-04
Your own earlier analysis (comment above, the three-phase plan) had this right, but the current execution plans across…
Implementation plan
autoresearch start <backlog.json> <rq-id> command
Reads the Council backlog JSON (e.g. first_run_2026-06-23.json), finds the node by rq-id. Fail-closed: if…
Implementation plan + deviation note
Regime detector
HMM with 3 states (calm / stressed / crisis) on realized_vol. Using hmmlearn (GaussianHMM). Deterministic + cached: hash the…
Implementation plan + deviation note
Approach
No quantile head exists yet. Using parametric VaR from predicted vol:
VaR_99(t) = -predicted_vol(t) × z_{0.99} where z =…
Approved scope. Ship FS reader now; this is the fast-follow.
Three answers:
1. Interim FS reader — yes, acceptable; do NOT wait on this issue.
The brain.Reader seam makes the swap…
task check on errcheck (deferred shutdown + resp.Body.Close)
Scope: two-line fix + template-self-CI (#1). Defer .golangci.yml (#2).
Take both the fix and #1 — and #1 is the more important half. The root cause isn't the two dropped errors; it's…
Window started — 2026-06-26 → 2026-07-10 (decisions locked)
Data gate: 14-day window open. hyperguild = the single measured harness — deliberately route review + debug through…
task check on errcheck (deferred shutdown + resp.Body.Close)
Confirmed: the two-line fix resolves it downstream — offering to push it to the template source
I'm the brain-gardener build that surfaced this. Confirming the root cause + fix from the…
Scoping + state-of-play (2026-06-26)
#35 isn't a PR — it's a measurement window. Probed the real state before acting:
Instrumentation: LIVE. Dataset: EMPTY.
/pass-rateworks on the…
BLOCKED on #35 (data gate) — sequencing guard
Per #34 + #35 deliverable 3: do not start the skills overhaul until /pass-rate has real data. Confirmed live 2026-06-26 — the endpoint…
task check on errcheck (deferred shutdown + resp.Body.Close)