.context/PROJECT.md

@@ -1,13 +1,80 @@
-# hostexecutor
+# jepa-fx-risk
 
 ## Identity
 
-- **Name**: hostexecutor
+- **Name**: jepa-fx-risk
 - **Owner**: Mathias
-- **Client**: personal
-- **Repo**: gitea.d-ma.be/mathias/hostexecutor
+- **Client**: personal / research
+- **Repo**: gitea.d-ma.be/mathias/jepa-fx-risk
 - **Status**: active
+- **Brain wing**: `jepa-fx` (`wiki/jepa-fx/`)
+
+## Purpose
+
+Research project. Not a product. The "user" is future-self and research readers. Success is a reproducible, publishable result — not deployment.
 
 ## Stack
 
-Go + Templ + HTMX + CDN Tailwind. See `~/dev/.context/AGENT.md` for cross-project conventions.
+- **Primary language**: Go 1.24+ (pipeline, eval harness, CLI, experiment runner)
+- **ML layer**: Python 3.12 + PyTorch (TS-JEPA training loop only — isolated in `model/`)
+- **Build**: Task (Taskfile.yml)
+- **Target infra**: koala (Arch + Blackwell GPU, training), iguana (Mac Studio M2, dev)
+- **MCP**: brain (knowledge), gitea (version control)
+
+## Research context
+
+**Primary hypothesis:**
+> JEPA embeddings trained on FX time-series will produce latent market-state representations structurally separable by regime without explicit labels, measurable by silhouette score > 0.35 on k-means clusters vs. realised-volatility regime labels, on held-out data including at least one structural break.
+
+**Current phase:** Phase 0 — SSL Feasibility Gate
+
+**Training cutoff:** 2023-01-01 (hard — never look at post-2023 data during development)
+
+**Out of scope:** options pricing, directional alpha, live/paper trading, exotic pairs (Phases 1–3)
+
+**Brain wing for prior decisions and failure modes:** `brain_query wing=jepa-fx`
+
+## Conventions
+
+### Scientific discipline
+- Every experiment has a spec in `specs/` before any code runs
+- Hypotheses are falsifiable and have quantitative acceptance criteria
+- Null results are recorded and published — not discarded
+- Training cutoff is sacred — post-2023 data never informs any design decision
+- Results reported with baselines; no cherry-picking
+
+### Code style
+- Go: `gofumpt`, `golangci-lint` with project config; table-driven tests; `testify`
+- Errors: `fmt.Errorf("context: %w", err)` — no naked returns
+- Python: `ruff` for lint; type hints throughout; `pytest` for tests
+- No Jupyter notebooks for anything reproducible — notebooks are EDA scratch only
+
+### Git
+- Conventional commits: `feat:`, `fix:`, `chore:`, `docs:`, `experiment:`, `result:`
+- Branch: `feat/`, `experiment/phase-N-description`, `fix/`
+- Every experiment run gets a git tag: `exp/YYYYMMDD-short-description`
+- PRs: one concern per PR; description explains *why* not *what*
+
+### Experiment discipline
+- One spec per phase in `specs/` — written before any implementation
+- Each run recorded in `experiments/YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS-description/`
+- Metric summaries committed to `results/summaries/` — large outputs gitignored
+- `task check` must pass before any commit
+
+### Security / data
+- No raw FX data committed (gitignored) — see `data/README.md` for reproducible download
+- No API keys or tokens in code — env vars only
+- Training data and results stay local — nothing to cloud unless explicitly decided
+
+## Agent instructions
+
+When acting as a coding agent on this project:
+
+1. Read this file and all `SKILL.md` files in `.skills/` before starting work
+2. Run `brain_query wing=jepa-fx` to load current decisions and failure modes
+3. Run `task check` before every commit (lint + vet + test)
+4. Check `DECISIONS.md` before making any architecture or methodology choice
+5. Every experiment needs a spec in `specs/` — no specless experiments
+6. Never touch post-2023 data during development; it is sealed
+7. Record null results honestly — do not iterate until metrics pass without noting it
+8. When adding a Python dependency, justify it; prefer pure Go alternatives

.context/mcp.json

@@ -1,8 +1,18 @@
 {
   "mcpServers": {
-    "knowledge": {
-      "url": "http://localhost:3100/mcp",
-      "description": "Project knowledge base — vector + graph retrieval"
+    "brain": {
+      "type": "http",
+      "url": "https://brain-mcp.d-ma.be/mcp",
+      "headers": {
+        "Authorization": "Bearer ${BRAIN_MCP_TOKEN}"
+      }
+    },
+    "gitea": {
+      "type": "http",
+      "url": "https://git-mcp.d-ma.be/mcp",
+      "headers": {
+        "Authorization": "Bearer ${GITEA_MCP_TOKEN}"
+      }
     }
   }
 }

.gitignore

@@ -1,30 +1,39 @@
-# ---> Go
-# If you prefer the allow list template instead of the deny list, see community template:
-# https://github.com/github/gitignore/blob/main/community/Golang/Go.AllowList.gitignore
-#
-# Binaries for programs and plugins
-*.exe
-*.exe~
-*.dll
-*.so
-*.dylib
-
-# Test binary, built with `go test -c`
+# Go build artifacts
+bin/
 *.test
-
-# Output of the go coverage tool, specifically when used with LiteIDE
 *.out
 
-# Dependency directories (remove the comment below to include it)
-# vendor/
-
-# Go workspace file
+# Go workspace
 go.work
 go.work.sum
 
-# env file
+# Environment
 .env
 
-# Project-specific
-bin/
-*.templ.go
+# Python
+model/.venv/
+model/__pycache__/
+model/**/__pycache__/
+model/**/*.pyc
+model/.pytest_cache/
+model/**/.pytest_cache/
+model/.ruff_cache/
+
+# Data — never commit raw or processed FX data
+data/raw/
+data/processed/
+data/cache/
+
+# Experiment outputs — commit summaries only (results/summaries/)
+experiments/*/embeddings/
+experiments/*/checkpoints/
+experiments/*/logs/
+
+# Large results — commit metric tables and figures only
+results/raw/
+
+# Notebooks — never commit outputs
+notebooks/**/.ipynb_checkpoints/
+
+# OS
+.DS_Store

.skills/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+This directory contains skill symlinks for this project.
+
+Agents: load all SKILL.md files in subdirectories before starting work.
+
+Active skills:
+- experiment-spec  — write experiment specs before running any phase
+- feature-spec     — write component specs before implementing within a phase
+- tdd              — acceptance criteria map to tests; red-green-refactor
+- grill-me         — stress-test specs and hypotheses before committing
+- session-retrospective — after each phase, surface learnings for the brain
+- clean-code       — Go and Python style conventions
+- planning         — break phases into trackable tasks
+- debug            — systematic debugging approach

AGENTS.md

@@ -1,13 +1,5 @@
-# hostexecutor
+# jepa-fx-risk — Agent context
+# Auto-generated from .context/PROJECT.md by `task context:sync`
+# Do not edit directly.
 
-## Identity
-
-- **Name**: hostexecutor
-- **Owner**: Mathias
-- **Client**: personal
-- **Repo**: gitea.d-ma.be/mathias/hostexecutor
-- **Status**: active
-
-## Stack
-
-Go + Templ + HTMX + CDN Tailwind. See `~/dev/.context/AGENT.md` for cross-project conventions.
+See .context/PROJECT.md for the canonical source.

CLAUDE.md

@@ -1,13 +1,5 @@
-# hostexecutor
+# jepa-fx-risk — Agent context
+# Auto-generated from .context/PROJECT.md by `task context:sync`
+# Do not edit directly.
 
-## Identity
-
-- **Name**: hostexecutor
-- **Owner**: Mathias
-- **Client**: personal
-- **Repo**: gitea.d-ma.be/mathias/hostexecutor
-- **Status**: active
-
-## Stack
-
-Go + Templ + HTMX + CDN Tailwind. See `~/dev/.context/AGENT.md` for cross-project conventions.
+See .context/PROJECT.md for the canonical source.

DECISIONS.md

@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+# DECISIONS.md
+
+Architecture and methodology decisions for `jepa-fx-risk`. Every non-obvious choice lives here with its rationale. Agents: read this before making any design decision.
+
+Last updated: 2026-05-27
+
+---
+
+## Language split: Go-first, Python-minimal
+
+**Decision:** Data pipeline, evaluation harness, CLI, and experiment runner in Go 1.24+. Python 3.12 + PyTorch only for the TS-JEPA model training loop, isolated in `model/`.
+
+**Rationale:** Python's dependency ecosystem is a reliability risk for a multi-year project (conflicting CUDA versions, transitive breakage, environment drift). Go produces a single static binary, has excellent CSV/Parquet support, is fast enough for all non-training workloads, and keeps the reproducible parts of the project dependency-free. The training loop genuinely requires PyTorch — that is the one place Python is unavoidable.
+
+**Boundary:** `model/` is the Python perimeter. Nothing outside it imports Python.
+
+---
+
+## Primary hypothesis
+
+**Decision:** Regime detection via embedding structural separability is the primary hypothesis. Distributional VaR forecasting is secondary and only pursued if Phase 1 and 2 succeed.
+
+**Rationale:** Regime detection is testable in Phase 1 without regulatory-quality outputs. If embeddings don't show regime structure, distributional VaR will also fail. Choosing a primary hypothesis prevents the project from retreating from one to the other on failure.
+
+**Success criterion (Phase 1):** Silhouette score > 0.35 on k-means clusters (k=3–5) vs. realised-volatility regime label (rolling 30-day HV percentile, high/low), computed on held-out test data including at least one structural break.
+
+---
+
+## Training data: 2008–2022, all G10 pairs
+
+**Decision:** Train on 15 years of all G10 FX pairs from DUKASCopy, 2008–2022. Do not start with a single 5-year EUR/USD window.
+
+**Rationale:** A single 5-year window (e.g. 2019–2024) is dominated by one or two regimes and gives the encoder insufficient regime diversity to learn regime-sensitive representations. Training on 2008–2022 ensures the encoder sees: GFC (2008), EUR sovereign debt (2011–2012), SNB cap removal (2015), COVID (2020), USD rate cycle (2022). Multi-pair training also allows cross-currency transfer (Phase 4).
+
+**Alternative considered:** Start simple with EUR/USD only, expand later. Rejected because regime diversity in training is a structural requirement, not a nice-to-have. Retrofitting it in Phase 2 would require retraining from scratch.
+
+---
+
+## Hard training cutoff: 2023-01-01
+
+**Decision:** All data from 2023-01-01 onward is sealed. No architecture, hyperparameter, or methodology decision may be informed by post-2023 data. Post-2023 test set opened only once, for final evaluation.
+
+**Rationale:** Out-of-sample integrity is essential for publishability and honest self-assessment. The held-out window (2023–2026) includes: 2023 US regional bank stress, 2024 JPY intervention episodes. These are the test of genuine generalisation.
+
+**Enforcement:** `data/raw/` is gitignored. The download script hard-stops at 2022-12-31 for training splits. Any deviation requires a DECISIONS.md entry explaining why.
+
+---
+
+## Phase 0: SSL feasibility gate before JEPA work
+
+**Decision:** Before any JEPA-specific implementation, run a Phase 0 experiment: masked autoencoder (MAE) baseline on EUR/USD hourly data. If MAE silhouette < 0.20, SSL-based regime detection is likely not feasible on this data — stop and investigate before proceeding to JEPA.
+
+**Rationale:** JEPA's complexity is only justified if the core SSL premise (that latent representations capture regime structure) holds for FX data. A failed MAE experiment tells us this in 2 weeks rather than 4 months. Added after Full Grill session (2026-05-27).
+
+**Go/no-go threshold:** MAE silhouette < 0.20 on held-out 2023 data → pause, investigate, do not proceed to Phase 1.
+
+---
+
+## Architecture: TS-JEPA as starting implementation
+
+**Decision:** Use TS-JEPA (Ennadir et al., 2025) as the starting JEPA implementation. MTS-JEPA (He et al., 2026) is the upgrade path if multi-resolution proves necessary.
+
+**Rationale:** TS-JEPA is simpler. Validate the concept before adding multi-resolution complexity. If Phase 1 succeeds with TS-JEPA, MTS-JEPA is an ablation, not a prerequisite.
+
+**Risk:** Both are preprints. Code reproducibility is unconfirmed. First task of Phase 0 is reproducing TS-JEPA on the paper's own benchmark — if this takes > 2 weeks, contact authors or fall back to implementing JEPA masking from scratch using V-JEPA codebase as reference.
+
+---
+
+## Input features: minimal for Phase 0/1
+
+**Decision:** Phase 0 and Phase 1 use three features only: log-return (hourly), rolling 20-period realised volatility (hourly), VIX (daily, interpolated to hourly).
+
+**Rationale:** Too many input features in early phases makes it impossible to distinguish "JEPA learned regime structure" from "JEPA learned to encode a feature that correlates with regime." Minimal features reduce confounding.
+
+**Expansion path:** Add DXY, G10 vol surface, yield spreads in Phase 2 if Phase 1 succeeds.
+
+---
+
+## Collapse diagnostic
+
+**Decision:** If PC1 of JEPA embeddings correlates > 0.85 with rolling 30-day HV, treat Phase 1 as a partial failure — the encoder learned volatility level, not regime structure. This is a useful finding but not the hypothesis.
+
+**Rationale:** EUR/USD hourly returns are strongly heteroskedastic. A JEPA encoder trained to predict future embeddings will strongly tend to encode current volatility as its primary latent dimension. This is predictable, not regime-sensitive. The linear probe and PC1 diagnostic together distinguish "learned volatility" from "learned regime."
+
+---
+
+## Linear probe as mandatory Phase 1 exit gate
+
+**Decision:** Train a linear model on frozen JEPA embeddings to predict realised volatility decile. R² < 0.4 → embeddings are not encoding useful risk structure → do not proceed to Phase 2.
+
+**Rationale:** If a simple linear model cannot extract volatility regime from the embeddings, the representations are not useful for risk management purposes regardless of their silhouette score. Interpretability-by-linear-probe is the minimum bar for any downstream use.
+
+---
+
+## Explicit out-of-scope (Phases 1–3)
+
+The following are explicitly out of scope for this research programme and go to a parking lot if they arise:
+
+- Options / derivatives pricing
+- Directional alpha generation
+- Live or paper trading
+- Exotic pairs beyond G10
+- Institutional deployment
+- Real-time inference systems
+
+---
+
+## Experiment spec required before any experiment
+
+**Decision:** Every experiment phase must have a written spec in `specs/` before any code runs. No specless experiments.
+
+**Rationale:** Consistent with spec-driven-dev way of working. Specs force falsifiable hypothesis statement, quantitative acceptance criteria, and explicit null-result protocol before results are known — preventing post-hoc rationalisation.
+
+---
+
+## Null results are results
+
+**Decision:** Null results (hypothesis rejected) are recorded in `results/summaries/` and treated as valid research outputs, not failures to be iterated away silently.
+
+**Rationale:** A confirmed null result (e.g. "SSL cannot find regime structure in FX hourly data") is publishable and scientifically valuable. Iterating hyperparameters until metrics pass without recording the failed attempts is p-hacking. Humble attitude; scientific approach.

README.md

@@ -1,13 +1,66 @@
-# hostexecutor
+# jepa-fx-risk
 
-> Generated from `mathias/template-go-web`.
+Research project exploring JEPA (Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture) as a framework for latent representation learning applied to FX trading risk management.
 
-## Bootstrap
+**Primary hypothesis:** JEPA embeddings trained on FX time-series will produce latent market-state representations that are structurally separable by regime without explicit regime labels, measurable by silhouette score on k-means clusters validated against held-out realised-volatility regime labels.
 
-After creating from template, run:
+**Current phase:** Phase 0 — SSL Feasibility Gate (not yet started)
+
+**Brain wing:** `jepa-fx` — query via `brain_query wing=jepa-fx`
+
+---
+
+## Architecture
+
+This is a **Go-first, Python-minimal** research project.
+
+| Layer | Language | Rationale |
+|---|---|---|
+| Data pipeline | Go | Type-safe, fast, no dependency hell |
+| Experiment runner | Go | CLI tooling, reproducible invocations |
+| Evaluation harness | Go | Silhouette, linear probe, collapse diagnostics |
+| Model training | Python + PyTorch | TS-JEPA requires it; kept minimal and isolated |
+
+## Structure
+
+```
+specs/          experiment specs (one per phase)
+src/            Go packages: pipeline, eval, cmd
+model/          Python: TS-JEPA training loop only
+experiments/    one directory per run (gitignored except summaries)
+results/        tracked: metric tables, key figures
+data/           gitignored; see data/README.md for download instructions
+notebooks/      EDA only; outputs stripped before commit
+docs/           ADRs and research notes
+```
+
+## Quick start
 
 ```bash
-go mod tidy       # regenerate go.sum with real module path
-task generate     # generate templ files
-task build        # build the binary
+task data:fetch          # download DUKASCopy G10 tick data
+task pipeline:build      # build Go data pipeline
+task check               # lint + vet + test
+task experiment:run -- --spec specs/phase-0-ssl-feasibility.md
 ```
+
+## Phases
+
+| Phase | Goal | Status |
+|---|---|---|
+| 0 | SSL feasibility gate — MAE baseline on FX data | 🔲 Not started |
+| 1 | JEPA representation PoC — silhouette > 0.35 | 🔲 Not started |
+| 2 | Regime detection validation — recall > 70%, lead > 5d | 🔲 Not started |
+| 3 | Distributional forecasting — VaR passes Kupiec | 🔲 Not started |
+| 4 | Multi-pair transfer — exotic pair improvement | 🔲 Not started |
+
+## Key constraints
+
+- **Training cutoff:** 2023-01-01 — all post-2023 data is sealed for final evaluation
+- **Training data:** 2008–2022, all G10 pairs, DUKASCopy
+- **Out of scope:** options pricing, directional alpha, live trading, exotic pairs (Phases 1–3)
+- **End-state:** publishable research result — not institutional deployment
+
+## Related
+
+- Brain wing: `wiki/jepa-fx/` — decisions, hypotheses, failure modes
+- Synthesis document: `JEPA_FX_Risk_Synthesis.docx` (session 2026-05-27)

Taskfile.yml

@@ -1,37 +1,79 @@
 version: '3'
 
 tasks:
-  generate:
-    desc: Run templ generate
-    cmds: [templ generate]
-  build:
-    desc: Build the binary
-    deps: [generate]
-    cmds: [go build -o bin/hostexecutor ./cmd/hostexecutor]
-  run:
-    deps: [build]
-    cmds: [./bin/hostexecutor]
-  test:
-    desc: Run all tests
-    deps: [generate]
-    cmds: [go test ./... -race]
-  lint:
-    cmds: [golangci-lint run ./...]
+
+  # ── Quality gate ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
   check:
-    desc: Lint, vet, and test (used by CI)
-    deps: [generate]
+    desc: "Full quality gate: lint + vet + test (run before every commit)"
     cmds:
-      - golangci-lint run ./...
-      - go vet ./...
-      - go test ./... -race -count=1
+      - golangci-lint run ./src/...
+      - go vet ./src/...
+      - go test ./src/... -race -count=1
+      - cd model && python -m pytest tests/ -q
+
+  test:
+    desc: Run Go tests only
+    cmds: [go test ./src/... -race]
+
+  lint:
+    desc: Lint Go code
+    cmds: [golangci-lint run ./src/...]
+
+  # ── Data ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+  data:fetch:
+    desc: "Download G10 tick data from DUKASCopy (2003–2022)"
+    cmds: [go run ./src/cmd/fetch --config data/config.yaml]
+
+  data:process:
+    desc: "Resample ticks → hourly OHLCV + features (log-return, rolling HV)"
+    cmds: [go run ./src/cmd/process --input data/raw --output data/processed]
+
+  data:validate:
+    desc: "Validate processed data: gap detection, outlier report, regime coverage"
+    cmds: [go run ./src/cmd/validate --input data/processed]
+
+  # ── Experiment ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+  experiment:run:
+    desc: "Run an experiment from a spec file. Usage: task experiment:run -- --spec specs/phase-0-ssl-feasibility.md"
+    cmds: [go run ./src/cmd/experiment {{.CLI_ARGS}}]
+
+  experiment:list:
+    desc: List all recorded experiment runs
+    cmds: [ls -lt experiments/ | head -20]
+
+  # ── Evaluation ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+  eval:silhouette:
+    desc: "Compute silhouette score on embedding output. Usage: task eval:silhouette -- --run experiments/RUNID"
+    cmds: [go run ./src/cmd/eval silhouette {{.CLI_ARGS}}]
+
+  eval:probe:
+    desc: "Run linear probe on frozen embeddings vs. realised-vol decile"
+    cmds: [go run ./src/cmd/eval probe {{.CLI_ARGS}}]
+
+  eval:collapse:
+    desc: "Check collapse diagnostic: PC1 correlation with rolling HV"
+    cmds: [go run ./src/cmd/eval collapse {{.CLI_ARGS}}]
+
+  # ── Model (Python) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+  model:train:
+    desc: "Train TS-JEPA model. Usage: task model:train -- --config model/configs/phase0.yaml"
+    dir: model
+    cmds: [python train.py {{.CLI_ARGS}}]
+
+  model:setup:
+    desc: "Create Python venv and install model dependencies (uv)"
+    dir: model
+    cmds:
+      - uv venv .venv
+      - uv pip install -r requirements.txt
+
+  # ── Context ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
   context:sync:
-    desc: Regenerate all harness-specific context files
-    cmds:
-      - bash scripts/context-sync.sh
-  context:sync:claude:
-    cmds: [bash scripts/context-sync.sh claude]
-  context:sync:agents:
-    cmds: [bash scripts/context-sync.sh agents]
-  context:sync:cursor:
-    cmds: [bash scripts/context-sync.sh cursor]
+    desc: "Regenerate CLAUDE.md and AGENTS.md from .context/PROJECT.md"
+    cmds: [bash scripts/context-sync.sh]

data/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+# Data
+
+Raw and processed FX data is **gitignored** — never committed.
+
+## Download: DUKASCopy G10 tick data
+
+Use the provided fetch task:
+
+```bash
+task data:fetch    # downloads raw tick data → data/raw/
+task data:process  # resamples to hourly OHLCV + features → data/processed/
+task data:validate # gap detection, outlier report, regime coverage check
+```
+
+## Expected structure (local only)
+
+```
+data/
+  raw/          G10 pairs, tick OHLCV, 2003–present (gitignored)
+  processed/    Hourly log-returns, rolling HV, VIX-merged (gitignored)
+  cache/        Intermediate artefacts (gitignored)
+  config.yaml   Download configuration (committed)
+```
+
+## Pairs
+
+EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF
+
+## Splits
+
+| Split | Date range | Purpose |
+|---|---|---|
+| Train | 2008-01-01 – 2022-12-31 | Model training only |
+| Held-out test | 2023-01-01 – 2023-12-31 | Final evaluation — do not open until evaluation |
+
+**Training cutoff is hard: 2023-01-01. No post-2022 data informs any design decision.**

experiments/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+# Experiments
+
+One directory per experiment run. Large outputs (embeddings, checkpoints, logs) are gitignored. Only metric summaries are committed to `results/summaries/`.
+
+## Naming convention
+
+```
+YYYYMMDD-HHMMSS-phase-N-short-description/
+  config.yaml       parameters used for this run (committed via results/summaries/)
+  metrics.json      final metric snapshot (committed via results/summaries/)
+  embeddings/       (gitignored — large)
+  checkpoints/      (gitignored — large)
+  logs/             (gitignored — large)
+```
+
+## Git tag convention
+
+Every run that produces reportable metrics gets a tag:
+
+```
+exp/YYYYMMDD-phase-N-description
+```
+
+Example: `exp/20260601-phase-0-mae-baseline`
+
+## Starting a run
+
+```bash
+task experiment:run -- --spec specs/phase-0-ssl-feasibility.md --tag my-run-description
+```
+
+The runner creates the directory, writes config, runs the experiment, and outputs metrics.json.

model/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+# model
+
+Python + PyTorch perimeter. This is the only directory in the project that uses Python.
+
+## Contents
+
+```
+model/
+  train.py              TS-JEPA training entry point
+  configs/              YAML configs per phase
+    phase0-mae.yaml
+    phase1-tsjepa.yaml
+  tsjepa/               TS-JEPA model implementation (adapted from paper)
+  tests/                pytest tests for model components
+  requirements.txt      pinned Python dependencies
+  .venv/                (gitignored — created by `task model:setup`)
+```
+
+## Setup
+
+```bash
+task model:setup    # creates .venv and installs requirements via uv
+```
+
+## Dependency policy
+
+Every Python dependency must be justified in a comment in `requirements.txt`. Prefer Go implementations for anything outside the training loop. When adding a new dependency, add an entry to DECISIONS.md explaining why a Go alternative wasn't sufficient.
+
+## Python version
+
+3.12 (pinned in `.python-version`)

notebooks/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+# Notebooks
+
+Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) scratch space only.
+
+## Rules
+
+- **Never use notebooks for anything reproducible.** Training, evaluation, and metric computation belong in `src/` with tests.
+- **Strip all outputs before committing.** Use `nbstripout` or equivalent.
+- **Label every notebook with a phase prefix:** `phase0-eda-eurusd-distribution.ipynb`
+
+Notebooks are thinking tools, not research artifacts. If a finding from a notebook is worth keeping, it goes into a spec, a decision in `DECISIONS.md`, or a result in `results/summaries/` — not the notebook itself.

results/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+# Results
+
+Tracked outputs from experiment runs. Large raw outputs are gitignored — only summaries are committed.
+
+## Structure
+
+```
+results/
+  summaries/    metric tables, key figures, per-phase result records (committed)
+  raw/          full embedding outputs, backtest CSVs (gitignored)
+```
+
+## Per-phase result record format
+
+Each concluded phase produces a result record in `summaries/`:
+
+```
+summaries/
+  phase-0-[pass|null].md
+  phase-1-[pass|null].md
+  ...
+```
+
+Each record must include:
+- Phase name and hypothesis
+- Key metrics (silhouette score, R², etc.) with confidence intervals where applicable
+- Baseline comparison
+- Verdict: PASS / NULL RESULT
+- If null: what was investigated, what was found, next step taken
+- Link to experiment git tag
+
+**Null results are valid research outputs and must be committed, not discarded.**

specs/phase-0-ssl-feasibility.md

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+# Experiment Spec: Phase 0 — SSL Feasibility Gate
+
+## Hypothesis
+
+> We believe that a masked autoencoder (MAE) trained on FX hourly time-series will
+> produce latent embeddings that show structural separability by volatility regime
+> without explicit regime labels, measurable by silhouette score > 0.20 on k-means
+> clusters evaluated against a held-out realised-volatility regime label on 2023 data.
+
+This hypothesis is FALSE if silhouette score ≤ 0.20 on the held-out evaluation.
+
+## Background
+
+Before investing in JEPA-specific machinery, we need to confirm that self-supervised
+representation learning can find regime structure in FX time-series at all. If the
+simplest SSL method (MAE) cannot find structure, JEPA will not either — and the root
+cause needs to be understood before proceeding.
+
+Also validates that TS-JEPA code is reproducible: first task is running TS-JEPA on
+the paper's own benchmark, not on FX data. If reproduction takes > 2 weeks, contact
+authors or fall back to implementing JEPA masking from V-JEPA codebase.
+
+Added post Full Grill (2026-05-27). See DECISIONS.md: "Phase 0: SSL feasibility gate."
+
+## Design
+
+### Data
+- **Source:** DUKASCopy, EUR/USD hourly OHLCV
+- **Train:** 2008-01-01 – 2022-12-31
+- **Held-out test:** 2023-01-01 – 2023-12-31 (sealed until final evaluation)
+- **Features:** log-return (hourly), rolling 20-period realised HV, VIX (daily → hourly interpolation)
+- **Regime label (evaluation only):** rolling 30-day HV percentile; binary: top 50% = high-vol, bottom 50% = low-vol
+
+### Model
+- **Architecture:** 1D temporal Masked Autoencoder
+  - Encoder: 3-layer 1D CNN + positional encoding
+  - Decoder: 2-layer MLP reconstructing masked segment
+- **Masking:** contiguous temporal block (target); context window = 120h (5 days)
+- **Loss:** MSE reconstruction on masked segment
+
+### TS-JEPA reproduction task (runs in parallel / before MAE)
+- Reproduce TS-JEPA paper results on the authors' benchmark dataset
+- Go/no-go: if reproduction fails within 2 weeks → contact authors or pivot to V-JEPA adaptation
+
+### Baseline
+- **PCA** on raw feature vectors (same 120h context window, flattened)
+- Tests whether any dimensionality reduction finds regime structure; confirms SSL is adding something
+
+### Ablations
+- Masking horizon K ∈ {8h, 24h, 72h} — does context length affect embedding quality?
+
+## Acceptance Criteria
+
+- [ ] MAE silhouette score > 0.20 on held-out 2023 data (k-means k=3, vs. binary HV regime label)
+- [ ] MAE silhouette exceeds PCA baseline silhouette
+- [ ] Rerun ×3 within ±10% of reported silhouette (reproducibility)
+- [ ] PC1 / rolling-HV correlation < 0.95 (encoder is not purely encoding volatility level)
+- [ ] TS-JEPA reproduced on paper's benchmark within 2 weeks of start
+
+## Out of Scope
+
+- JEPA implementation (Phase 1)
+- Multi-pair training (Phase 1+)
+- VaR, ES, or any risk metric computation
+- Any data after 2022-12-31 (training); 2023 test set opened only for final evaluation
+- Hyperparameter search beyond the three masking horizons defined above
+
+## Null Result Protocol
+
+If MAE silhouette ≤ 0.20 on held-out data:
+1. Conclude: SSL-based regime detection is not straightforwardly feasible on EUR/USD hourly data with these three features
+2. Investigate in order: (a) try daily resolution instead of hourly, (b) expand feature set to 6 features (add DXY, yield spread), (c) try 4-class regime label (HV quartiles) instead of binary
+3. If all three investigations fail: conclude SSL regime detection is not viable on FX data; document and consider pivoting the primary hypothesis to distributional forecasting directly
+4. Record result in `results/summaries/phase-0-null.md`
+5. Write failure mode to brain: `brain_write wing=jepa-fx hall=failures`
+
+## Risks
+
+| Risk | Canary | Mitigation |
+|---|---|---|
+| TS-JEPA code unreproducible | Benchmark result doesn't match paper within 2 weeks | Contact authors; fall back to V-JEPA adaptation |
+| MAE encoder collapses | Reconstruction loss plateau in first 10 epochs; all embeddings near-identical | Add batch normalisation; reduce LR; check masking ratio |
+| Regime label too coarse | Silhouette low even with visually structured embeddings | Also evaluate with 4-class HV quartile label |
+| PC1 is just volatility | PC1/HV correlation > 0.95 | Useful finding; record it; do not declare success |

specs/phase-1-representation-poc.md

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+# Experiment Spec: Phase 1 — JEPA Representation PoC
+
+## Hypothesis
+
+> We believe that a TS-JEPA encoder trained on G10 FX hourly data (2008–2022) will
+> produce latent market-state embeddings that are structurally separable by volatility
+> regime without explicit regime labels, measurable by silhouette score > 0.35 on
+> k-means clusters evaluated against realised-volatility regime labels on held-out
+> 2023 data including at least one structural break.
+
+This hypothesis is FALSE if silhouette score ≤ 0.35 OR linear probe R² ≤ 0.40 on
+held-out evaluation.
+
+**Prerequisites:** Phase 0 passed (MAE silhouette > 0.20, TS-JEPA reproduced).
+
+## Background
+
+Phase 0 confirmed that SSL-based representation learning can find regime structure in
+FX time-series. Phase 1 tests whether JEPA's specific inductive bias (predict target
+embeddings from context embeddings, never reconstruct raw data) produces richer
+representations than a simple MAE — and whether those representations are useful for
+risk management tasks (measurable via linear probe).
+
+## Design
+
+### Data
+- **Source:** DUKASCopy, all G10 pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF), hourly
+- **Train:** 2008-01-01 – 2022-12-31 (all 10 pairs, jointly)
+- **Held-out test:** 2023-01-01 – 2023-12-31 (sealed until final evaluation)
+- **Features:** log-return, rolling 20-period HV, VIX (daily → hourly)
+- **Regime label (evaluation only):** rolling 30-day HV percentile; binary + 4-class (quartiles)
+
+### Model
+- **Architecture:** TS-JEPA (Ennadir et al., 2025)
+  - Context encoder: maps observed window → latent embedding
+  - Target encoder: EMA of context encoder (momentum β ≈ 0.996); stop-gradient
+  - Predictor: shallow MLP bridging context → target embedding
+- **Masking horizons:** ablate K ∈ {1h, 8h, 24h}; context window = 120h
+- **Training:** multi-pair joint training (one model, all G10 pairs)
+
+### Baseline
+- Phase 0 MAE (best masking horizon from Phase 0)
+- PCA on raw features (Phase 0 baseline)
+
+### Ablations
+1. TS-JEPA vs MAE — is JEPA's no-reconstruction inductive bias adding value?
+2. Single-pair (EUR/USD only) vs. multi-pair — does joint training improve representations?
+3. Masking horizon K: {1h, 8h, 24h}
+
+## Acceptance Criteria
+
+- [ ] Silhouette score > 0.35 on held-out 2023 data (k-means k=3–5, binary HV label)
+- [ ] Linear probe R² > 0.40 on frozen embeddings vs. realised-vol decile
+- [ ] PC1 / rolling-HV correlation < 0.85 (encoder learning more than volatility level)
+- [ ] TS-JEPA silhouette exceeds Phase 0 MAE silhouette by > 5%
+- [ ] Rerun ×3 within ±10% of reported silhouette
+
+## Out of Scope
+
+- VaR, ES, distributional forecasting (Phase 3)
+- Exotic pairs beyond G10
+- Options pricing, alpha generation, live trading
+- Any data after 2022-12-31 for training; test set opened only for final evaluation
+- Regime detection backtesting (Phase 2 — embedding drift as early warning)
+
+## Null Result Protocol
+
+If primary criteria not met:
+1. If silhouette > 0.20 but ≤ 0.35: JEPA shows partial structure; not sufficient for Phase 2. Investigate whether multi-pair training, longer context window, or additional features close the gap. One retry permitted with documented rationale.
+2. If silhouette ≤ 0.20: regression from Phase 0; investigate JEPA training stability (collapse risk). Do not proceed.
+3. If linear probe R² ≤ 0.40 despite good silhouette: embeddings are structured but not encoding risk-relevant information. Record as a finding; reconsider feature set.
+4. Record all results in `results/summaries/phase-1-[pass|null].md`
+5. Write findings to brain: `brain_write wing=jepa-fx hall=failures`
+
+## Risks
+
+| Risk | Canary | Mitigation |
+|---|---|---|
+| EMA encoder collapses | All embeddings converge to near-zero; loss goes to ~0 early | Verify EMA momentum schedule; check stop-gradient implementation |
+| Encoder learns only EUR/USD vol | PC1 dominated by EUR/USD HV even in multi-pair model | Evaluate per-pair silhouette; if EUR/USD dominates, weight loss by pair |
+| Phase 0 silhouette was data-split artefact | Phase 1 MAE baseline doesn't reproduce Phase 0 numbers | Fix random seeds; document split methodology in Phase 0 |
+| Insufficient regime diversity (2008–2022) | Embedding clusters don't separate 2023 structural break | Verify 2023 test includes high-vol episode; add 4-class label as backup |